Get out your brackets- the big dance is coming; and with all the parody in college basketball this year expect a lot of close games. It’s virtually impossible to fill out a perfect bracket. That’s why billionaire, Warren Buffet, doesn’t sweat much offering one billion dollars to whoever does finish the tournament perfect.
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible combinations for a bracket. Here are my picks for the Final Four, and all of my upset picks.
South
I have no upsets in the first round for the South Region. Expect Florida and two seed, Kansas, to dominate against Mt. Saint Mary’s and Eastern Kentucky respectively.
The round of 32 is where the upsets begin to appear. I have VCU taking down UCLA in the 5-4 matchup. Expect Shocka Smart’s, “Havoc Defense,” to pose problems for the young Bruins’ backcourt of Kyle Andersen and Zach LaVine.
The Syracuse Orange will run into a buzz saw in Ohio State in the round of 32. Syracuse has also struggled as of late, and Aaron Craft and the Buckeyes will be no elixir to the Orange’s troubles. Look for craft to penetrate the 2-3 zone of the Orange, and kick out to shooters like Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Shannon Scott.
There is an adage, “teams that press don’t like to be pressed.” Expect the Florida, VCU matchup to be a sloppy matchup with both teams struggling to break the others presses. In the end, Florida will prevail- their experience and shear talent can’t be matched by the young Rams.
Kansas and Ohio State will end up playing in the Sweet Sixteen. With extreme pressure early from Aaron Craft on the young Kansas point guard, Naddir Tharpe, the Jayhawks will face a small deficit at the half. Bill Self will likely game plan at the half to have Andrew Wiggins bring the ball up the floor and avoid Craft all together.
Wiggins and Joel Embiid will bring the Jayhawks back in the second half, and the Buckeyes will not have enough offensive firepower to finish off the game.
Wiggins and Embiid are the focal points of Kansas’ offense, but Embiid is out the first weekend with a stress fracture in his lower back. Wayne Selden Jr. and Perry Ellis will have to pick up the slack during Embiid’s absence.
East
Sticking to the chalk in the first round, I expect no upsets. Memphis may have some trouble with the experience of George Washington in the 8-9 game, but expect the Tigers talent to prevail.
The round of 32 is where one of the biggest upsets of the tournament will occur. Connecticut will take down 2 seed, Villanova in a close game. The Wildcats have only four losses this season, but only one win against the top 25. That win came in November.
The Wildcats have some experience, but Shabazz Napier and the Huskies look poised to pull off the upset against an overrated Villanova squad.
Don’t expect the good fortune to continue for UConn in the sweet sixteen, where they will face the BIG 12 tournament champion, Iowa State Cyclones.
The Cyclones are playing their best ball of the season, and don’t expect their run to stop against the one man show of Napier and the Huskies. The trio of Nieyang, Kane, and Ejim will dominate the game on the perimeter and inside the paint.
The Michigan State Spartans, when healthy, are the best team in the country. Keith Appling and Adrein Payne do not want to be Tom Izzo’s only graduating class not to reach the Final Four.
Expect the experience of the Spartans to take down the 1 seed, Virginia Cavaliers, as the Cavs come into the tournament with NCAA Tournament experience for any of their players.
The Cavaliers style of play does not translate well to the tournament. They hold the ball until the end of the shot clock, and tend to give up a lot of threes. While Virginia is a talented team, they play so many close games- an upset is bound to happen. The Spartans are the perfect team to take down the top seeded Cavs.
A 4-3 matchup in the elite eight will be between Michigan State and Iowa State. The tournament experience and depth of the Spartans will be what takes down the Cyclones in the end, and propel Michigan State to the Final Four.
West
Just simple 8-9 matchup upset in the first round is where the upsets in the West begin, Oklahoma State, fresh off a great performance in the BIG 12 tournament, will cruise to victory against Gonzaga.
The Zags will have no answer for Marcus Smart or Markell Brown, on the offensive and defensive end.
Expect the Cowboys to continue their hot play in the round of 32 and take down top-seeded Arizona. Marcus Smart will be able to play great defense on the perimeter, and stop Nick Johnson from making his usual impact on the tournament.
Le’Bryan Nash and Markell Brown will match the athleticism of Aaron Gordon to lead the Cowboys to victory.
In the 2-7 matchup between Oregon and Wisconsin the Ducks will find a way to take down the Badgers with pure athleticism. The Badgers are not the typical defensive juggernaut that Bo Ryan usually puts on the floor, and that will hurt them against a team as good as the Ducks.
In the sweet sixteen, Oklahoma State will take down San Diego State. At this point Marcus Smart has carried his team this far, don’t expect his spectacular play to stop against the Aztecs.
While Oregon was able to take down Wisconsin in the round of 32, the matchups do not fare well for the Ducks. They have no means by which to even slow down Doug McDermott, the Blue Jays of Creighton will easily take down Oregon.
The Cowboys will be matched up with Creighton to clinch a spot in the Final Four. The Cowboys magical run will continue. Marcus Smart and Markel Brown will be to shut down Doug McDermott on the perimeter, and if the Cowboys are able to stop the lethal outside shooting of Ethan Wragge, they will cruise into the Final Four.
Midwest
I’m expecting the classic 12-5 upset in the round of 64 when NC State faces St. Louis. St. Louis enjoyed an extended run in the top ten towards the end of the season, but losses to Duquesne and VCU towards the end of the season sent the Billikens on a downward spiral. St. Louis has now lost four of their last five in a conference that falls below par.
NC State, on the other hand has played its best ball of the season as of late. Led by ACC Player of the Year, TJ Warren, they made a run all the way to the semifinals of the ACC tournament.
Warren and the Wolfpack will clamp down on the less athletic St. Louis and cruise to an easy victory.
Kentucky was not playing well towards the end of the season, but a great run in the SEC Tournament and a near upset over Florida in the title game has given me some confidence in the Wildcats.
Kentucky will matchup with the Shockers of Wichita State in the round of the 32. The Shockers come into the tournament looking to be only the second team in NCAA history to win the championship and go undefeated.
The Shockers come out of a weak conference, and have no wins over top 25 opponents.
The more talented and athletic Wildcats will take down the Shockers for a close, upset victory.
Duke and Michigan will cruise to a dynamite Sweet Sixteen matchup. The Jabari Parker led Blue Devils played well to end the season, and was able to advance all the way to the ACC Tournament finals.
Michigan on the other hand won the BIG 10 regular season title and dominated some very good teams in the process.
The Blue Devils took down the Wolverines in December; don’t expect a different result this time, Duke will win and head to the Elite Eight.
Louisville will face the Wildcats of Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. Louisville caught fire at the end of the season, and will easily blowout the inexperienced Wildcats.
That leaves Duke and Louisville in the Elite Eight, a rematch of one of last year’s regional finals. Kevin Ware had a gruesome injury, and the Cardinals were able to take down the Blue Devils in his honor.
This year I expect Louisville to exploit Duke’s biggest weakness, defensive rebounding. Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell have been dominating the American Conference as of late, and don’t expect their great play to end anytime soon.
A combination of Louisville’s premier athleticism and Rick Pitino’s defensive prowess will lead the Cardinals to a close, yet convincing victory over Duke.
Final Four
Coming out of the South, Kansas will experience a newfound energy with the return of Joel Embiid. The Jayhawks will match up with Michigan State out of the East.
The Spartans had an easy road to the Final Four, but will find some trouble scoring against Embiid on the inside, and Wiggins on the outside.
If the Spartans want to advance to the national championship they will need a fantastic performance from Keith Appling, as Harris and Payne will be tied up by Embiid and Wiggins respectively.
The talent and pure athleticism of the Jayhawks will be too much for the Spartans to overcome.
The Cinderella squad, Oklahoma State, will represent the West region. Smart and the Cowboys will face Louisville out of the Midwest region.
Smith and Harrell will dominate the inside and out, but Luke Hancock will make the biggest difference for the Cardinals.
Louisville will blowout the Cowboys, spearheaded by their great press.
National Championship
The two most talented teams in the country will face off in the championship game, we couldn’t have asked for anything better.
Expect this matchup to come down to which coach has his team most prepared to win.
Rick Pitino won it all last season, and he will lead his team to their second straight title.
