Abstract

The purpose of this study was to look at the correlation between CO2 emissions per capita, GDP per capita, and the climate vulnerability part of the ND-GAIN index to show how the nations driving climate change are not those that are the most vulnerable to its effects. GDP per capita data was collected from the World Bank, 

CO2 emissions were from Climate Watch, and ND-GAIN was from the University of Notre Dame.

The data was averaged between the years of 2013-2019 to try to avoid major economic events like the pandemic or the recession. The list of nations was also pared down to only include countries in all three data sets. 

The correlation between vulnerability and GDP per capita was -0.620, GDP and CO2  per capita had a correlation of 0.648, and emissions compared to vulnerability had a correlation of -0.557. 

All of these correlation coefficients are moderate, with GDP compared to CO2 being positive and the rest being negative.

The implications of this data are very logical. The more wealth a nation has, the better the nation is able to protect itself from the effects of climate change. More specifically, GDP is a measurement of goods and services bought and sold, and almost all goods and services produce CO2. If money partially determines both how much a country is able to produce and consume, and predicts how well they are able to shelter themselves from the effects of climate change, then it makes sense that vulnerability and emissions are both moderately correlated.

Background

When looking at climate change, there are many differences between the affectors and the affectees. Countries with the highest GDP tend to consume the most resources, emit the most CO2, and have the ability to shield themselves from the effects of climate change. Conversely, countries with lower GDP emit less but have the least ability to avoid the effects of climate change, meaning that the countries that cause CO2 are not the ones that will be most affected.

Climate change is a phenomenon in which the globe warms and exacts disastrous effects on weather patterns, sea levels, habitats, endangered animals, and a whole plethora of other symptoms, large and small. The major driving force behind climate change is the emission of greenhouse gasses, the most prevalent of which is carbon dioxide released by humans during “the extraction and burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas” (NASA 1). This CO2 then rises into the atmosphere. The earth is always being heated by the sun, but most of this heat radiates out into space. Greenhouse gasses, like CO2, insulate the earth and keep it at a livable temperature, but as humans release more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere less heat leaves the planet, but the same amount is added by the sun, causing the planet to slowly heat up. Ecosystems on earth are a perfectly calibrated system, and while they are able to adapt to changes in temperature over a very long period of time, humans are causing the planet to warm at a rate too fast for life to adapt. According to the United Nations and the vast majority of scientific research, this warming and the changes that come with it are unequivocally caused by human activities. Health impacts can include: “Extreme heat waves, rising sea levels, changes in precipitation resulting in flooding and droughts, and intense hurricanes can directly cause injury, illness, and even death” (“Human Health” 1).

Climate change is also very difficult to deal with once it occurs, as it is a positive feedback loop. The warming atmosphere causes permafrost and glaciers to melt, releasing CO2 trapped for thousands of years. One of the largest carbon sinks is the ocean. It absorbs around 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere (Shadwick 1). As water temperature increases, the amount of gas the water can hold decreases. Melting ice sheets reduce the amount of sunlight and thermal energy reflected away from the earth. Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall mean reduced crop yield in certain areas, leading to more land needing to be devoted to agriculture and more deforestation, destroying a valuable carbon sink.

While climate change is a problem for us all, it doesn’t affect everyone evenly. Depending on a variety of factors, there may be disparities between different regions and countries of the world. An example more divorced from particular socioeconomic circumstances is the Marshall Islands. The Marshalls are an atoll in Oceania, about halfway between Hawaii and Australia with a population of 82,011 (“Marshall Islands”). They are currently sinking, and will continue to sink, as a direct result of climate change: “Kiribati, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands. All of these barely peek out over the surface of the ocean. And all of them literally could be wiped off the map” (Stutter, 29-31). While forming an objectively correct image of vulnerability is immensely difficult, researchers have created a system known as ND-GAIN. While ND-GAIN is composed of both vulnerability and readiness factors, the issue with using the entire index is that readiness factors are almost exclusively economic, and would mean little when compared to GDP. Just the vulnerability section of ND-GAIN can provide a better snapshot of how much a country would be hit by climate change: “Life-supporting ND-GAIN vulnerability sectors measured include: Water, Food, Health, Ecosystems, Human Habitat, Coastal Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, [and] Transportation Infrastructure” (ND-GAIN 2). There are even more divisions into groups of indicators that can provide a complete picture. Food, for example, has 6 different categories, with 1 to 5 different sources of data for each category. Overall, ND-GAIN uses 62 sources to concisely and accurately measure a country’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change (ND-GAIN 16-38).

GDP is the measurement of a country’s total economic output. It is the sum of personal consumer expenditures, investment, government spending, and net exports within a nation. Personal consumer expenditure is the monetary value of all goods and services that trade hands within a country, not including imports and exports. It represents how much money consumers have by showing how much they are willing to spend, and it also shows how much is being produced. Investment includes money being spent to create new assets. Examples include: a consumer paying to build a new house, or a business building a new mine. New value is being created rather than anything trading hands. Government spending includes all government programs investing in the prosperity of the nation, including spending on education, defense, infrastructure, transportation, public health, and the environment. Net exports are total exports minus imports. It represents how much is produced domestically and then sold abroad and subtracts out how much is purchased from other countries. To account for differences in population, the data used in this study is GDP per capita.

A country with a higher GDP per capita is more likely to have higher CO2 emissions per capita and be less vulnerable to climate change. A country’s GDP is a measure of economic strength, and a large part of economic strength is—often—polluting industries that emit CO2 and cause climate change. Conversely, this economic strength can also be leveraged to alleviate certain effects of climate change and become less vulnerable to the effects caused by those same wealthy countries.

Methods

For this project, the timespan from 2013 to 2019 was selected due to its relative economic stability. While gross domestic product (GDP) is generally considered an acceptable indicator of a nation’s economic wealth, periods of economic turbulence, such as 2020 and 2008, could lead to data discrepancies, particularly if these recessions affected certain countries differently.

Both GDP and CO2 emissions data were obtained from the World Bank. For each of these indicators, an average was calculated from 2013 to 2019. The datasets were provided by the World Bank and Climate Watch, respectively, and were used after removing regions or countries that lacked data in any of the three datasets.

Vulnerability data was sourced from ND-GAIN, a composite dataset that includes 45 indicators from 74 sources. After calculating the final ND-GAIN vulnerability score and averaging it over the years 2013 to 2019, countries that were absent across all three datasets were removed.

However, vulnerability constitutes only half of the ND-GAIN index. For the complete index, the readiness indicators were also averaged over the years 2013 to 2019. Both vulnerability and readiness data were then input into a formula provided on the ND-GAIN website to calculate ND-GAIN scores as an average for all nations present across all datasets.

Discussion

The analysis of the graphed data supports the hypothesis that a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) can serve as a generalized indicator of how much CO2 it produces and how resilient it is to the effects of climate change. In other words, the general trend indicates that countries with stronger economies tend to pollute more while experiencing less vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change. The correlation between Vulnerability and GDP per capita is -0.620, indicating a moderate negative relationship. The correlation between GDP per capita and emissions is 0.648, showing a moderate positive relationship. Finally, the correlation between emissions and vulnerability is -0.557, which is also moderate. All three correlations suggest significant, though not overwhelmingly strong, relationships.

GDP affects vulnerability because, while some aspects of vulnerability (such as geographical features) are beyond a country’s control, much of it is shaped by the country’s ability to respond to climate-related events. A wealthier nation can better mitigate the effects of hurricanes, floods, and other climate-induced disasters, while a poorer nation may lack the resources to effectively address these challenges. Similarly, GDP affects emissions because economic growth in a carbon-based world often leads to higher emissions. While some sectors of the economy may not directly contribute to pollution, many countries’ economies depend on industries that produce carbon emissions as part of their production processes. The third relationship, between CO2 emissions and vulnerability, is not inherently significant but is rather a byproduct of the links between both these factors and a country’s GDP.

Sources of error in the results could arise from several factors. For example, the exclusion of certain countries for which data was unavailable may have skewed the results. Additionally, human error in data entry could have influenced the strength of the correlation. A more critical source of error, however, could stem from potential overlap between the variables. While CO2 emissions are distinct, GDP and vulnerability may share some common underlying factors. For instance, factors contributing to vulnerability, such as agricultural capacity and access to fresh water, are indirectly related to GDP. This overlap means that when comparing vulnerability to GDP, part of the relationship could be driven by the same underlying causes, thus complicating a direct comparison. The ND-GAIN metric, which is designed to measure a country’s vulnerability to climate change, attempts to account for these overlaps, but there may still be a degree of shared influence.

To strengthen this analysis, it would be useful to explore alternative vulnerability metrics that are less directly related to GDP, as this would reduce potential biases in the comparison. Additionally, a more comprehensive study, including a broader range of countries and more refined data, would help establish a clearer, more reliable understanding of the relationships between GDP, emissions, and vulnerability.

Bibliography

Baker, Maribo. “After the Flood: Dispatch from the Marshall Islands II.” University of British Columbia Blogs, 20 July 2016, blogs.ubc.ca/maribo/2016/07/20/after-the-flood-dispatch-from-the-marshall-islands-ii/.

Callen, Tim. “Gross Domestic Product: An Economy’s All.” Finance and Development Magazine, International Monetary Fund, www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/gross-domestic-product-GDP. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

Chen, Chen, et al. “Country Index Technical Report.” University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, U of Notre Dame, 30 Jan. 2023, gain.nd.edu/assets/522870/nd_gain_countryindextechreport_2023_01.pdf. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

“Climate Watch Historical GHG Emissions.” Climate Watch, World Resources Institute, 2022, www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions?breakBy=countries&calculation=PER_CAPITA&end_year=2021&gases=co2&regions=WORLD&start_year=1990. Accessed 18 Dec. 2024.

“Construction Activity.” CBRE, CBRE Group, 2022, www.cbre.com/insights/books/2022-us-construction-cost-trends/02-construction-activity. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“Corporate greening falls short: Gail Whiteman is unconvinced by an argument that naked greed and market forces will drive businesses to cut their emissions.” Nature, vol. 473, no. 7346, 12 May 2011, pp. 149+. Gale In Context: Science, link.gale.com/apps/doc/A257127437/SCIC?u=fcpsmhs&sid=bookmark-SCIC&xid=59e2281b. Accessed 29 Oct. 2024.

“Energy and the environment explained.” U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy / United States Government, 14 June 2024, www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/greenhouse-gases.php. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“GDP and the Economy.” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, United States Government, 3 May 2023, apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2023/05-may/pdf/0523-gdp-economy.pdf. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“Global Issues: Climate Change.” United Nations, www.un.org/en/global-issues/climate-change. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer.” United States Environmental Protection Agency, United States Government, 18 Aug. 2023, cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/index.html#allsectors/allsectors/allgas/econsect/current. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“Gross Output by Industry.” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States Government, 19 Dec. 2024, apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTUwLCJzdGVwcyI6WzEsMiwzXSwiZGF0YSI6W1siY2F0ZWdvcmllcyIsIkdkcHhJbmQiXSxbIlRhYmxlX0xpc3QiLCIxNSJdXX0=. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“Human Health Impacts of Climate Change.” National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Institute of Health / United States Government, 7 Nov. 2022, www.niehs.nih.gov/research/programs/climatechange/health_impacts. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

Kimmel, Sarah. Cape Town’s Water Is Running Out. NASA Earth Observatory, 18 Jan. 2018, earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91649/cape-towns-water-is-running-out.

“Marshall Islands.” Central Intelligence Agency, United States Government, 29 Dec. 2024, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/marshall-islands/#people-and-society. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

NASA.gov. Usa.gov, climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/?intent=121. Accessed 13 Nov. 2024.

“NASA Study Reveals Compounding Climate Risks at Two Degrees of Warming.” Nasa, United States Government, 14 Aug. 2023, climate.nasa.gov/news/3278/nasa-study-reveals-compounding-climate-risks-at-two-degrees-of-warming/. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Index (ND-GAIN). (2024). University of Notre Dame.

Rohrer, Karl, et al. “Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2022 and Annual Update.” Edited by Dave Wasshausen and Tom Howells. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce / United States Government, 29 Sept. 2022, www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/gdp2q22_3rd.pdf. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

Shadwick, Elizabeth, et al. “Oceans absorb 30% of our emissions, driven by a huge carbon pump. Tiny marine animals are key to working out its climate impacts.” The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Commonwealth of Australia, 16 June 2023, www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/june/oceans-absorb-emissions. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

Stutter, John D. “Life in a Disappearing Country.” CNN, www.cnn.com/interactive/2015/06/opinions/sutter-two-degrees-marshall-islands/. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

“Temperature and Water.” United States Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the interior / United States Government, 6 June 2018, www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/temperature-and-water. Accessed 2 Jan. 2025.

“Trees at Theewaterskloof Dam, Cape Town’s Main Dam, with Extremely Low Levels Due to Recent Drought.” Dreamstime, www.dreamstime.com/trees-theewaterskloof-dam-cape-town-s-main-extremely-low-levels-recent-drought-image109411072. Accessed 7 Jan. 2025.

“What is GDP?” Bureau of Economic Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce / United States Government, www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-04/GDP-Education-by-BEA.pdf. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

Wong, Ted, et al. “What Would Cities Look Like With 3 Degrees C of Warming vs. 1.5? Far More Hazardous and Vastly Unequal.” World Resources Institute, 17 Sept. 2024, www.wri.org/insights/climate-change-effects-cities-15-vs-3-degrees-C#:~:text=At%203%20degrees%20C%20of,to%20be%20the%20hardest%20hit. Accessed 18 Dec. 2024.

Wood, Danielle, and Brian Wanbaugh. “Country Index.” ND-GAIN, U of Notre dame, www.google.com/url?q=https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/methodology/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1735913424032665&usg=AOvVaw3aXU82UbMPzPZVk7D0VMGo. Accessed 3 Jan. 2025.

“World Bank World Development Indicators.” The World Bank, World Bank Group, data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?view=chart. Accessed 18 Dec. 2024.